Today, nine major news items were observed including Novo’s PIONEER 2 (vs. Jardiance) and PIONEER 4 (vs. Victoza) data readouts, new Medtronic closed-loop, and CGM pivotal trials, and more. Below, FENIX provides context and analysis for the announcements.
With the upcoming Trulicity CVOT (REWIND) presentation at ADA 2019 (Sunday, June 9 at 4:30-6:30 pm PT), and in the context of the other GLP-1RA CVOTs (particularly LEADER, SUSTAIN 6, PIONEER 6, and HARMONY), the FENIX team is decidedly split on how positive the REWIND results will be. Below, FENIX presents Matt’s bold prediction for a hit on all-cause mortality vs. the team’s more moderate consensus of a LEADER-like ~13% RRR with a potential miss in the primary prevention cohort.
Lilly recently initiated two new tirzepatide T2DM studies. The first is a Ph1 clamp study comparing tirzepatide to Novo’s QW injectable semaglutide, and the second is the Ph3 SURPASS-1 monotheraphy trial vs. pbo. Interestingly, the Ph1 trial is evaluating the effect of tirzepatide on α and β cell function. Below, FENIX provides thoughts on both studies including Lilly’s potential rationale for the H2H clamp trial as well as insight as to why SURPASS-1 is longer than Novo’s Ph3 semaglutide monotherapy trial.
Lilly’s president of diabetes, Enrique Conterno, participated in a fireside chat at the 2019 BAML Conference (webcast link here). For what is believed to be the first time, Conterno commented that Lilly is looking to develop an oral GIP/GLP-1 based on its current understanding from tirzepatide (injectable GIP/GLP-1) and having a non-peptidic oral GLP-1RA (OWL833) licensed from Chugai (Ph1 ready; previous FENIX insight). Below, FENIX provides thoughts on Lilly’s oral GLP-1 development strategy.
Late last week, FDA issued the final guidance on biosimilar interchangeability titled, “Considerations in Demonstrating Interchangeability With a Reference Product Guidance for Industry.” Below, FENIX provides thoughts on the FDA interchangeability guidance in the context of the insulin market.
In advance of ADA 2019 beginning June 7, FENIX has conducted a comprehensive analysis of new and recent promotional materials obtained at the AACE 2019 conference. In the first installment, FENIX analyzes GLP-1RA promotional materials, to be followed by a separate analysis on SGLT2i, insulin (+GLP-1RA/insulin FRC), and diabetes devices. The GLP-1RA FENIX analysis covers Ozempic, Trulicity, Bydureon, and Victoza.
ADA 2019 abstract and session titles are available through the ADA desktop app. According to the ADA website, full abstract text will be available Tuesday, June 4 at 5:00 pm ET.
Novo Nordisk hosted its post-Q1 ’19 earnings event in London. The session included a brief presentation from management followed by Q&A. Below, FENIX provides highlights and insights from the call.
Novo Nordisk hosted its Q1 ’19 earnings call (press release) and provided updates to its diabetes business including the recent oral semaglutide and Ozempic regulatory filings. Of note, Novo reported topline results from the Tresiba vs. Toujeo H2H trial. Below, FENIX provides highlights and insights from the call including thoughts on how the Tresiba vs. Toujeo H2H trial may impact the basal insulin market.
Merck and Pfizer hosted their respective Q1 ’19 earnings calls. Both companies only briefly discussed their diabetes-related businesses. Below, FENIX provides highlights from the calls.