ADA ’18 Key Data Press Releases (June 24)
4 major press releases featuring new data presented at ADA ’18 were observed across diabetes drugs and devices. Below, FENIX has provided context and analysis of these announcements.
4 major press releases featuring new data presented at ADA ’18 were observed across diabetes drugs and devices. Below, FENIX has provided context and analysis of these announcements.
Novo hosted its annual ADA analyst briefing (presentation slides), predominantly discussing oral semaglutide. Of note, Novo disclosed they are no longer conducting a large-scale CVOT for Ozempic (formerly SOUL), instead leveraging the results of both SUSTAIN 6 and PIONEER 6 between injectable and oral semaglutide. Novo senior management said they believe it will be difficult for PIONEER 6 to demonstrate CV benefit at p < 0.05 given the low number of pre-specified events will require a large reduction in the hazard ratio. Additionally, Novo stated they plan to file oral semaglutide in mid-2019. Below are highlights from the ADA analyst event including three potential scenarios for injectable and oral semaglutide CV indications.
21 major press releases featuring new data presented at ADA ’18 were observed across diabetes drugs, devices, and apps, a major increase from 9 on the first day of ADA ‘17. Below, FENIX has provided context and analysis for 14 drug-related announcements, with analysis of device and app-related announcements to follow in a separate alert.
For the four Ph3a oral semaglutide trial data disclosures thus far, Novo has consistently discussed two statistical analyses performed: on-treatment and intention-to-treat. FENIX believes this directly plays into Novo’s oral semaglutide regulatory strategy including preparing for an FDA adcom, the submission dossier, and proposed product label. Below, FENIX discusses more thoughts in the context of the PIONEER-1 study and potential label implications from Novo’s statistical representations that could allow for PIONEER-4 superiority vs. Victoza in the label.
Novo Nordisk has announced topline results from the Ph3 PIONEER 4 (vs. 1.8mg Victoza) and PIONEER 7 (3, 7, and 14 mg oral sema dose escalation vs. Januvia) studies. Both trials met their primary outcomes (non-inferiority to Victoza and superiority to Januvia), and oral semaglutide also demonstrated statistically significant A1C and weight reduction vs. Victoza. Additionally, FENIX provides insight into a potential relationship between PIONEER 7 dose escalation and discontinuation rates observed in the reported PIONEER studies.
The CT.gov record for Novo’s pediatric Victoza study (ELLIPSE) has recently been updated to “completed.” Assuming Novo files ELLIPSE by the end of Q2 ’18, approval is projected in H1 ’19 with an 8 to 10-month review. Below, FENIX provides implications and market context for the Victoza pediatric label update.
In advance of ADA 2018 beginning June 21, FENIX has conducted a comprehensive analysis of new and recent promotional materials obtained at AACE 2018. Notably, this was the first major conference opportunity for Novo to promote both Ozempic and the Tresiba DEVOTE label update.
Novo Nordisk has announced topline results from the Ph3 PIONEER 2 study comparing oral semaglutide to BI/Lilly’s Jardiance. Interestingly, this is the second oral semaglutide trial to have topline results (PIONEER 1 FENIX insight); and in each case, Novo has only disclosed on-treatment results. Below, FENIX provides insight into PIONEER 2 results and the impact on oral semaglutide commercialization.
AZ hosted their Q1 ’18 earnings call and briefly discussed their diabetes portfolio, with a particular focus on Farxiga, including H2 ‘18 readout of the DECLARE CVOT and planned H2 ’18 US filing in T1DM.
During Novo’s Q1 ’18 London earnings webcast, senior management discussed potential scenarios surrounding the recently-purchased priority review voucher (PRV), including its use for either oral semaglutide or a semaglutide obesity indication. Below, FENIX provides its thoughts on how the PRV serves as insurance to a successful launch for oral semaglutide, as well as some anticipated triggers for its usage.